Gold markets enter the week with traders balancing upcoming macroeconomic releases and evolving policy signals. A series of high-impact events—including Australia's CPI, U.S. GDP and Core PCE data, Canada's GDP, and China's Manufacturing PMI—are set to shape sentiment across currencies and commodities. Against this backdrop, gold continues to consolidate near record levels, with technical signals pointing to the potential for renewed upside momentum. Market participants will closely monitor both economic prints and central bank developments for confirmation of the next directional move.
Overview
Gold markets enter the week with traders balancing upcoming macroeconomic releases and evolving policy signals. A series of high-impact events—including Australia's CPI, U.S. GDP and Core PCE data, Canada's GDP, and China's Manufacturing PMI—are set to shape sentiment across currencies and commodities. Against this backdrop, gold continues to consolidate near record levels, with technical signals pointing to the potential for renewed upside momentum. Market participants will closely monitor both economic prints and central bank developments for confirmation of the next directional move.
Key Economic Events
Wednesday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – Australia: CPI y/y (AUD)
Thursday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Prelim GDP q/q (USD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – Canada: GDP m/m (CAD)
Friday 15:30 (GMT+3) – USA: Core PCE Price Index m/m (USD)
Sunday 04:30 am (GMT+3) – China: Manufacturing PMI (CNY)
Chart Analysis
Since peaking at a record $3,499.98 per troy ounce on April 22, gold has consolidated within a defined range, with resistance near $3,451.09 and support around $3,248.20. Price action has formed a Symmetrical Triangle, a pattern that typically favors continuation in the prevailing trend, suggesting the potential for an upside breakout.
Technical conditions reinforce this view. The 20- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) maintain a bullish alignment, with the shorter-term EMA positioned above the longer-term, and price action consistently trading above both. Momentum signals are also supportive: the Momentum Oscillator remains above the 100 baseline, highlighting sustained upward pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above 50, pointing to resilient buying interest.
Key Resistance Levels
Should the buyers maintain market control, traders may direct their attention toward the four potential resistance levels below:
3,408.70: The initial resistance level is established at 3,408.70, which mirrors the swing high reached on August 7.
3,451.09: The second price target is set at 3,451.09, representing the high point marked on June 16.
3,499.08: The third price objective is observed at 3,499.08, corresponding to the all-time high marked on April 22.
3,556.64: An additional upside target is projected at 3,556.64, reflecting the 261.8% Fibonacci Extension drawn from 3,408.70 to 3,311.15
Key Support Levels
Should the sellers take market control, traders may consider the four potential support levels listed below:
3,353.88: The initial support level is seen at 3,353.88, corresponding to the weekly Pivot Point, PP, calculated using the standard methodology.
3,311.15: The second support level is estimated at 3,311.15, representing the trough marked on August 20.
3,248.20: The third support level is identified at 3,248.20, reflecting the low point marked on June 29.
3,120.57: An additional downside target is 3,120.57, mirroring the swing low from May 15.
Fundamentals
Gold rose on Friday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that risks to the U.S. economy may justify policy adjustments, fueling expectations of a September rate cut. Spot gold climbed 1.1% to $3,373.89 an ounce, with futures settling at $3,418.50, as the dollar weakened. Traders now see an 85% chance of a quarter-point cut, up from 75% before Powell's remarks. While physical demand in Asia remained subdued, Indian jewellers cautiously resumed buying ahead of the festival season.
On another note, Gold gained after President Trump moved to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising fresh concerns about central bank independence and boosting safe-haven demand. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,377 an ounce as the dollar weakened and Treasury yields slipped. Analysts noted the move could pave the way for looser policy, reinforcing expectations of rate cuts and long-term inflation hedging. Bullion has already advanced more than 25% this year, though momentum has slowed since its April peak above $3,500. Traders now await U.S. consumption data due Friday for clues on the Fed's next steps.
Conclusion
Gold remains at a critical juncture, consolidating just below record highs as markets weigh upcoming economic releases and shifting policy dynamics. Technical indicators continue to favor the bullish case, but confirmation will hinge on macro data and central bank signals in the days ahead. With risks tilted toward monetary easing and safe-haven demand resurfacing, traders should remain alert to potential breakout opportunities while respecting the well-defined support and resistance levels that frame the current market structure.